Canada's Great Election Con, Education Scam, US Recession Watch
A close election race and strangely a two party race. The Liberals got about 43% of the vote and Conservatives about 41%. The last time we had a two party race in a Canadian election was the 1930s which is probably indicative of the period we are going to enter, an economic abyss.
My prediction of a Conservative minority was wrong. Perhaps I was victim to wishful thinking and hope that Canada would not continue with the destructive Liberal polices that have led to the countries decline. However, it makes it very easy to predict where Canada is headed because most of the same Liberal destructive policies will continue as they were.
You have to give the Liberals some credit. They managed to convince enough voters that their previous policies are not the problem, but the last few months of the bad orange man is all to blame and what matters. Here is a typical far left comment “Carney has the economic know-how to deal with a childlike Trump,” Maria Longo, a mortgage broker from Montreal, said over the weekend ahead of the vote. “Trump is ruining the world.”
When the history books are written, this will go down as the greatest election con in Canadian history. It is a very sad day, it is just that most don't know it yet.
For me, it makes it very easy to predict the Canadian future. Massive immigration to continue a transformation to a socialist country. Much higher deficit spending to support that, but will drive continued rising costs and inflation. A continued deterioration in housing, education, health care, drug addiction/over dose along with rising crime. The Chinese triads will continue control of the drug trade and their money laundering systems.
The Liberals will continue to play out the Covid-19 playbook, but this time it is the Trump virus. PM Carney has already portrayed it as a crisis, the largest Canada has ever faced. He will use that to justify massive spending and the emergency to enact various policies. The government will be the solution to everything while private business and investment continues decline as the country enters a deep recession. Oh but that is not our problem, it is all Trump's fault!
The Liberals’ recent plan includes $129 billion in new spending over four years, adding nearly $225 billion to the federal debt. The Trudeau government had planned to have a $42.2 billion budget deficit in fiscal 2025-26, while a Carney government plans a $62.3 billion deficit over that period. The Trump virus is required to justify massive Carney government spending.
I was recently looking at the education scam in Canada. Some of you maybe surprised by these numbers. It is one of the mass immigration tools the Liberals have been using.
I looked at Algoma University, where a colleague of mine knows someone in administration there. When I went to college, a friend of mine attended Algoma which was a college back then. The school holds around 1,800 to 2,000 full time students and has three campuses but Timmins only has a couple dozen students or so. In 2021 there was 1,940 full-time equivalent students in Sault Ste. Marie, Brampton, Ont., and Timmins campuses.
.International Student Enrollment Statistics for Algoma University
2023: (keep in mind, these are permits and $$, maybe not actual students at school)
Study Permits Issued: Algoma University had 9,329 study permit applications approved by the federal government in 2023, ranking it eighth among Canadian post secondary institutions for international student permits. How did they fit????
International Student Population: Nearly 50% of Algoma’s student body was international, with estimates suggesting around 2,500–5,000 international students across its three campuses (total enrollment ~5,000–10,000).
Growth Trend: International student permits surged from 215 in 2018 to 9,329 in 2023, a 4,300% increase over five years.
Brampton Campus Impact: Enrollment at the Brampton campus grew by 900% from 2020 to 2023, driven almost entirely by international students from India. In 2021/2022, 65% of Algoma’s total revenue (across all campuses) came from international students, with 76% of tuition revenue from Brampton’s international cohort.
Demographics: The majority of international students were from India, with over 70 languages and 170 cultures represented in the student body.
2024:
Expected Enrollment: Algoma University projected 2,000–2,500 international students for the 2024–2025 academic year, a potential reduction due to federal caps.
Study Permit Reduction: Algoma was the only public university in Ontario allocated fewer international student permits in 2024 compared to 2023, with 3,038 permits allotted. This reflects a federal cap aiming to reduce new permits by 35% nationwide to ~364,000.
As you can see, there is really not going to be much reduction of international students with a reduction in just one university. Algoma moved to a lot of online courses to accommodate more students and a lot of students don't go to school, it is just a means of getting into Canada. The Auditor General's report highlighted that Algoma University's "international undergraduate student graduation rate for 2022 was 55%," Where are the other 45%? Perhaps hard to pass if not in class.
The Universities are all part of the scam because of the money. The international students at the Brampton campus pay significantly higher tuition fees than their Canadian and American counterparts. They are charged $10,000 per term, compared to the $2,932 per term paid by domestic students. The high fees, coupled with the lack of adequate resources and support, have left many international students feeling disappointed and trapped.
Liberal Totalitarian Government Forever
You can understand why the education system supports and will continue support the Liberals. Government itself will grow that of course votes for itself. All those on growing government support programs will continue to vote Liberal for the programs they provide. Mass immigration will support Liberals for getting them into the country. It is easy to see a scenario where the Liberals will never get voted out. And anything that goes wrong or fails in the next four years will be blamed on Trump.
The majority are sucked into this con. I watch TV, the odd movie and hockey games and listen to a lot of radio outside and in my workshop. Leading up to the election it was a constant barrage of anti Trump, pro Liberal propaganda. Liberal propaganda will continue with another $150 billion that Carney promised to the CBC media.
The Liberals even managed to oust Conservative leader Poilievre from his own riding. If you remember there was 91 candidates running against him there and I have no doubt the Liberals spent a ton of $$ and effort on the riding. It removes their main nemeses from parliamentary debate and sends a message that this type of leadership is not allowed in Canada.
There will be no stopping China election interference. This is a U.S. left wing newspaper, the New York Times wrote on Sunday“ Fearing for his safety, Mr. Tay… has waged perhaps the quietest campaign of any candidate competing in the election. The attacks on Mr. Tay have sought to influence the outcome of the race in Don Valley North, a district with a large Chinese diaspora in Toronto, in what is the most vote-rich region in Canada.”
Investment Outlook
I am sorry, this is where it is very bleak!
This is not going to happen over night but is the trend for the next few years. The high government spending and deficits will keep inflation high and prevent much easing in interest rates, even as the country goes deeper in recession. There will be a short term inflation relief with carbon tax gone.
Taxes will increase as is the norm with Liberals. The carbon tax will go back on, but hidden from consumers, probably taxing industry. The higher taxes will continue to contribute to the outflow of business investment, Canadian talent and professionals. For example, the head cancer surgeon I know in my region has just left for Dhabi.
The Canadian loonie will continue on a down path to new lows. It was already on this trend with the previous Liberal policies.
Canadian small business and public companies will continue to suffer with falling demand in a recession with continued rising costs, tariffs, skilled labour shortages and high taxes.
I believe Canadian investors should mostly be in commodity based stocks and non Canadian companies. Good dividends are important as they represent the majority of returns in equity investments over the long run. Some of the Canadian junior explorers is alright. Remember that their success comes when they make a commodity discovery that is priced in US$. This will negate the effect of a falling Canadian loonie.
The major institutions in this country avoid investing in Canada like the plague. I give you the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Fund as an example. Here are their top 25 holdings as of last filing, December 31, 2024.
There is only 2 Canadian stocks, Sandstorm Gold and their top holding, GFL Environmental (waste management) is Canadian. It was originally founded in Canada but now gets 75% of their revenue from U.S. operations and is listed on the NY exchange.
What does that tell you when Canada's major institutions and public investment funds have almost no investment in Canada.
Once again Armstrong Economics I follow, their computer model had the election projected correctly. It was predicting 41.25% and 45.4% as the low end numbers for the Liberals. Early this morning the Liberal number was at 43%.
Armstrong is for sure right wing, but his computer modelling has historically proven to be quite accurate. He did not have much nice to say about Carney and ends with
“Our computer has been showing that Canada’s economy will take a nosedive over the next two years, into 2027. Of course, Carney will blame Trump. “
U.S. Recession Watch
I am happy the Canada election is over. There is now a very clear picture where the economy and markets are going. I will just add Canada in this recession watch. The idea is to find turning points, tops or bottoms in market sectors and stocks.
As I have been commenting, the Trump policies are going to be disruptive and there will be short term pain and suffering before a chance of recovery. The U.S. will negotiate trade deals with most countries and this turmoil will subside as the year progresses. New Delhi is preparing to offer the United States a future-proof guarantee of a most-favored-nation clause in bilateral trade, potentially making India the first large country to sign a trade deal with the Trump administration.
However, the trade war with China could continue the longest and now Canada may out do China. The Carney Liberals will want to keep the tariff and trade war going to justify their spending and policies. We will get a better idea how things will go when Canada and the U.S. meet after this election. I expect talks will drag at a slow pace. A trade/economic war with the U.S. is economic suicide for Canada, but the Liberal government doesn't care on that, only their agenda. Carney's victory speech last night “ We are over — we are over the shock of the American betrayal”
“We will strengthen our relations with reliable partners in Europe, Asia and elsewhere. And if the United States no longer wants to be in the forefront of the global economy, Canada will. “
There is a slew of U.S. economic data out this week and today's data is not great.
The consumer-confidence index sank in April to the lowest level since the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Confidence fell 7.9 points to 86.0 in April, the fifth straight monthly decline.
The number of job openings in the U.S. fell in March to a six-month low just as some of the Trump administration’s tariffs began to kick in, but the big question is what will happen in the coming months as the trade wars drag on. New job postings dropped to 7.2 million in March from 7.5 million in the prior month,
Oil was in a rally from the April 9th lows but dropped the last two days starting a down trend. It appears the oil market is predicting a recession and/or slower global growth.
All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which may change at any time and without notice. The author/publisher of this publication has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. The information & data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but because the information & data source are beyond the author's control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Because of the ever-changing nature of information & statistics the author/publisher strongly encourages the reader to communicate directly with the company and/or with their personal investment adviser to obtain up to date information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter is not a qualified financial adviser & is not acting as such in this publication.