Election Prediction Correct, Bitcoin Trade Soars, No Canada , Gold, Fed
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My election prediction turned out to be correct and our bet with Bitcoin has done extremely well. With Bitcoin setting all time record highs. Sell the news and take the profits in the BITU etf. ($34.65). We have a very nice 2 week gain of about 23%. This is a one month chart.
I think the results boiled down to what Bill Clinton once said “Its the economy stupid”. The Biden/Harris administration record was a terrible economy of inflation and rising interest rates, things were much better back in Trump days. This was the number one issue and a lot of women saw through the phony abortion propaganda that the Democrats pushed. Trump may be against abortion but him or the Democrats can do nothing about it. Abortion is now decided at the State level mostly as part of health care. The 2022 Supreme Court ruling won't be over turned with the same justices.
Abortion was on the ballot in 10 states - Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York and South Dakota. Abortion rights amendments were approved in Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, New York, Arizona, Nevada and Montana. In most cases it is approved with no conditions up to a certain number of weeks in the pregnancy.
Trump's America first policies, higher tariffs and lower taxes will be a boom for U.S. companies and stocks. The big challenge will be how bad the economy is that he is left with. Now the election is over we will probably see more realistic economic data like last months plunge in jobs.
Canada is already in free fall and a 3rd world country.
The pace of our down fall will pick up speed next year if there are new tariffs and trade agreements with the U.S. will be renegotiated also Canada will be bargaining from a position of weakness. Plus we have a government that is clueless when it comes to the economy.
The immediate threat is a huge increase in illegal immigrants and refugees that will flee the U.S. into Canada before Trump is sworn in. He has promised to deport a lot of them and he will. Sadly Canada has a very weak border and is already over whelmed with a migration problem. This will get only get far worse. See my substack on this Canadian problem. I will have more comments and predictions when the election results are final and we know which side wins the House of Representatives.
Gold is down today as the election uncertainty trade is over. I am only expecting a one or two day pull back and short term support should hold.
We will see some important economic data tomorrow and the Fed's interest rate decision. A 25 point cut is expected and another 25 point cut expected in December. I don't think it is going to matter much because the market is raising rates in the face of the Fed cuts.
The 10 year treasury rate is pretty much back up to it's early 2024 and 2023 highs.
Rates have jumped higher over night and this morning as markets have little confidence in governments to reign in spending. Markets are likely unsure how the Trump administration can achieve this if they are going to cut taxes. Of course we will hear the normal rhetoric that they inherited an economy and budget in a mess. However and sadly, this is true.
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