Intentionally in the Dark With Tariffs Inflation with Tariffs? Whats Next?

Realize that Trump uses tariffs and tariff threats as bargaining tools. More than half of what he says changes or never happens. He delays or changes implementation dates. It makes it very confusing for most people and more so for Canadians.

The Liberal government is using Trump's tariffs as an election platform. They purposely keep Canadians in the dark so they can spin the narrative they want about Trump and his tariffs.

They are also using the tariff war as a diversion from the past Liberal policies that put Canada in such an economic mess. In fact Carney was questioned at a recent rally if he thought past.

Liberal policies caused Canada's economic problems and he quickly diverted to Trump's tariffs and how huge a problem they cause. And only the Liberal government can best deal with it.

I will get to exactly where tariffs and threats are at right now, but first some background on how and why we got here.

The weakness in global supply chains was first revealed with Covid-19 and additionally with the Ukraine war. Most European and Asia countries have been trying to secure supplies, build more within and deal with close allies. The Biden Administration started this too with their chip and critical minerals strategies among others. Trump is a lot more serious and aggressive with this. He wants more production and manufacturing in the U.S. and better trading deals.

The U.S. is the world's biggest consumer market and every country including Canada tries to exploit it. Why would you not, but Trump plans to make it more difficult.

Canada has not tried to secure anything or be self reliant. Poilievre has talked about it for the last two years but the Liberals have only started to talk about it now because it's in their face and there is an election.

Remember in 2022 when German Chancellor Scholz visited Canada in hopes of securing Hydrogen and Liquefied Natural Gas deals and Trudeau said no. Trudeau did the same with Japan because of his only focus was green zero carbon energy. Now Carney, Trudeau 2.0 says he will build Canada energy independence including conventional energy. As I always put it, 'do as I do not as I say.'

Folks, don't be fooled by the Liberal propaganda just because it is election time. Go by what they have done not by what they say.

Carney now says Canada relations with the U.S. is over. This is disillusion thinking. Canada and the U.S. share the longest open border in the world. The U.S. has been Canada's number one trading partner for over 100 years. This will not change no matter what Carney says or what Trump does.. Please people, think for yourself, ignore the silly propaganda and rhetoric.

With Carney it could also be far left lunacy but I believe the real idea is diversion and trying to fool Canadians where the real problems lie. All the problems Canada faces now were here long before Trump got elected. So where are tariffs rhetoric actually at.

Current Actual Tariffs in the Light

Right now there is a 25% tariff on Canadian aluminum and steel with 10% on energy. Much like Trump's first term but energy added. The 25% was to go on all imports from Canada/Mexico on March 4^th but Trump delayed it a month on all goods covered by the USMCA trade deal.

The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), also known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), is a free trade agreement that entered into force on July 1, 2020, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

According to a senior White House official, Nearly 38 percent of goods imported from Canada fall under the USMCA, while 62 percent do not. A significant portion of the latter is energy imports, which are subject to a 10 percent tariff.

This agreement basically covers almost everything so essentially at this time there is only tariffs on Canadian aluminum, steel and energy. There is a lot of rhetoric that tariffs cause inflation but it did not in Trump's first term and markets are quite complex on how they adjust to demand, supply and price. So far prices for aluminum and steel have gone lower and there is no effect on oil. Western Canadian Select prices have tracked Western Texas Intermediate.

You can check aluminum and steel prices here, but they are down in March.

Canada implemented new tariffs on U.S. - countless on iron ore, aluminum and steel products, cell phones, beer, wine, whiskey, orange juice, peanut butter of around 25%.

Canada already has countless tariffs and I looked at the official government customs document that is 1,425 pages so I looked mostly at beverages, wine beer and spirits that was 16 pages because they were hit with additional tariffs, As of January 2025 mineral waters, fruit drinks already had 11% tariffs and if they contain over 50% dairy it is 256%. A lot of the beer, wine and spirits were free of tariffs but many have tariffs ranging from 5 to 30 cents per litre so not very much. The real issue in Canada is government mostly controls the beer and liquor stores so they control it by what they purchase and put on the shelves. They pulled all the U.S. wine, beer and liquor off the shelf, silly because they already bought it but it was political posturing and to push the narrative they wanted.

With China:Trump has enacted new blanket tariffs of around 20% on top of existing 10% duties that went into place during Trump's first term. Biden kept Trump's original tariffs. There are much higher tariffs on some goods like EVs and solar panels. China has responded with up to 15% duties on US farm goods such as chicken and pork, which went into effect Monday, March 10.

Inflation and What is Next

Canadian and U.S. consumers recently went through high inflation so are very concerned and frightened about anything that could increase inflation. Trump's opposition and politicians are using this inflation fear as political leverage, especially the Liberal government in Canada.

If tariffs become more wide spread as Trump is threatening I believe it could cause a bit more inflation, but if we are going into recession, this will bring inflation down.

Next week is Trump's deadline for 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and tariffs world wide on vehicles. Lets see what actually happens. Maybe Trump delays Canadian tariffs to after the election? To save his plying card to then. What if European countries respond by removing their tariffs on U.S. autos? I will bet you all the tea in China that you won't hear much positive narrative on that or comments about possible lower prices.

I encourage you to read the White House statement about border security and tariffs

“On April 2, we’re going to move into the reciprocal tariffs, and hopefully Mexico and Canada will have done a good enough job on fentanyl that this part of the conversation will be off the table and will move just to the reciprocal tariff conversation,” Lutnick said.

This is not good for Canada. FBI Director Kash Patel disclosed Wednesday to lawmakers on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence that as apprehensions of “known or suspected terrorists” had declined on the southern border, they have been and continue to be high along the northern boundary. So far in fiscal 2025 (Oct 2024 to Feb 2025), U.S. Customs has intercepted 143 terrorists at Canadian border compared to 29 at the Mexican border.

Arrests on the northern border are highest at the ports of entry, which include land, sea, and air ports. In the first five months of 2025, 143 suspected terrorists were nabbed by customs officers, putting the total on track to near last year’s total of 358, which was among the highest years in recorded history, according to US Customs statistics.

There is a disturbing trend in the numbers above. The word has gotten out to terrorists, criminals and drug cartels it is much easier to get into the U.S. from Canada. Remember these are numbers at only ports of entry, not the thousands of miles in between them. I will do an update on this tariff thing late next week when we see what actually happens beyond the rhetoric.

All this tariff and border mess will get straightened out in a year or two, but first we need to get Canadian election results and depends who wins, where we go from there.

Prime Minister Carney says relations are over with the U.S. and I am afraid if he wins the election, the only thing that will be over is Canada.

Imagine the power house that Canada, U.S. and Mexico could be working together. The three countries could be totally self reliant on everything. Canada and the U.S. would really have to step up on mining to produce more minerals, but energy would be easy to do and agriculture is already there. More in country manufacturing is another challenge as well. Infrastructure is a biggie in Canada also.

Canada needs to change and needs new leadership

“We have the best trading relationship in the history of the world. Why not continue and grow that trading relationship as two separate, sovereign nations,” Conservative leader Poilievre said.

“True, free trade without tariffs will allow both of our economies to separately grow stronger so that we can fund stronger militaries and more secure borders, and make our continent safe against the real risks from overseas.” Poilievre continued.

I don't think we need to give the Liberals a 4^th term to see what they will do. We already know. Poilievre deserves a chance and lets see how good he is on his word.