Mid Day Market Report – Economic Trouble, The Trump Effect and Apple defies shorts, GM, AGI
I have been highlighting numerous economic indicators that paint a far weaker economy than the government narrative and here is another. Today the New York Empire State factory gauge contracts for eighth straight month in July. It is a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state and slipped 0.6 points in July to negative 6.6. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged at a negative 6 reading, according to a survey by the Wall Street Journal.
Of course the major news was the first shooting of a U.S. president or major presidential party candidate since the 1981 attempted assassination of Republican President Ronald Reagan. Trump was pure lucky or God was with him as the bullet was just an inch or two of his death.
I not only analyze events but also try to predict and what effects they may have. I expect most people thought I might be off my rocker in my February 1st newsletter with my bold predictions for 2024. One was “Trump wins the 2024 election or is assassinated”.
Images from a SEAL sniper instructor at Red Sky LLC.
It's hard to believe a shooter could get so close. That was the perfect position that secret service should have occupied.
In my May 31 newsletter I commented on the idiotic Trump legal issues. (BTW he is not convicted yet, the judge put the ruling off to September.) and I said “Who knows what else could happen to try and stop Trump? Whatever it might be, it could surprise markets negatively.” Fortunately the bullet missed or there would have probably been a big market sell off today.
In other Trump news another frivolous court case gone. U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed Trump’s classified documents case on July 15, finding that special counsel Jack Smith’s appointment violated the Appointments Clause. “The Superseding Indictment is DISMISSED because Special Counsel Smith’s appointment violates the Appointments Clause of the United States Constitution,” the order reads.
Analysts are expecting this will bolster Trump further in the polls and an election win by a wider margin. I tend to agree as Biden and the Democrats seem to be a basket case.
The New York Times reported that major donors had frozen $90 million pledged donations commitments to Biden's top super PAC, having concluded that Biden is a dead man walking.
Another blow, Elon Musk (world's richest man) said he would not contribute to either party seemed to change his mind. Citing anonymous sources "close to the matter," Bloomberg on Friday evening broke the potentially game-changing news that Musk had given money to America PAC (Trump).
Summed up nicely by Tyler Durden at Zerohedge - “There’s a vegetable sitting in the Oval Office and the nation is in a panic.”
In my January 2024 outlook, I predicted that Biden would be replaced at the last minute. “Currently it appears that Biden is running but actually he is not fit to and at some point he will probably surprise and step down. It sounds like he refuses to step aside and will have to be forced. Biden says only God can remove him, wow sounds just as defiant on leaving as Trump was.
Trump's social media company stock soared today. Apple made new 52 week highs along with GM and Ford. Our gold pick Alamos also made new all time highs.
Trump Media (DJT) $39.45 +27.5%
Trump Media, a relatively new entrant in the media landscape, has garnered significant attention and a dedicated following. The platform’s unique positioning as an alternative to mainstream media resonates with a large and engaged user base, ensuring robust user growth. Trump Media's potential for monetization through advertising, subscription services, and exclusive content offers diverse revenue streams. The company's focus on free speech and uncensored content appeals to a segment of the market seeking alternative viewpoints. With a strong brand association and a rapidly expanding user base, Trump Media is poised for substantial growth, making it an intriguing opportunity for bullish investors looking for high-growth potential in the media sector. The stock took a big jump on the weekend news of the assassination attempt on Trump. Seems investors expect more traffic and attention to the media site.
Apple Inc (AAPL) $235.70, 52 week high
Apple remains a dominant force in the technology sector, continuously setting benchmarks for innovation and user experience. The company’s diverse product ecosystem, including the iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and AirPods, drives consistent revenue growth. Apple’s strategic shift towards services, encompassing Apple Music, iCloud, Apple TV+, and the App Store, has significantly enhanced its profitability and recurring revenue streams. The company's commitment to innovation is evident in its advancements in AR/VR, artificial intelligence, and health technology. With a loyal customer base, robust financial health, and a strong track record of shareholder returns. Apple continues in focus with investors as one of the Magnificent 7 stocks. In my Magnificent 7 short barometer it saw the largest increase in short positions and continues to defy these shorts.
General Motors Company (GM) $49.80
General Motor is at the forefront of the automotive industry’s transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous driving technology. GM’s bold commitment to an all-electric future, exemplified by its extensive EV lineup and the Ultium battery platform, positions it as a leader in the EV market. The company's strategic investments in Cruise, its autonomous vehicle subsidiary, underscore its dedication to pioneering next-generation mobility solutions. GM's strong financial performance, driven by solid sales of its trucks and SUVs, provides a stable foundation for its ambitious EV and AV initiatives. As the automotive industry undergoes a transformative shift, GM's innovative approach and strategic vision make it a compelling investment opportunity. In their Q1 report the company raised 2024 guidance and on June 11th announced a share buy back up to $6 billion of the company's outstanding common stock.
Ford hit new highs today as well so it is more of a positive industry outlook. I expect this is because the lower interest rate narrative. I believe this sets up the sector for a shock as a weak economy will become a more negative factor.
Alamos Gold (AGI) C$24.19 another new all time high
Alamos Gold (AGI) stands out as a strong player in the gold mining sector, with a portfolio of high-quality, low-cost operations in North America. The company's flagship mines, including Young-Davidson, Island Gold, and Mulatos, boast long mine lives and robust production profiles. Alamos Gold's focus on operational efficiency and cost control ensures strong profit margins even in fluctuating gold price environments.
The stock hit new highs on news today of a $116 million gold prepayment that was used to eliminate gold forward purchase contracts, previously entered into by Argonaut Gold, totalling 179,417 ounces in 2024 and 2025 with an average price of $1,838 per ounce. The transaction has eliminated more than half of the Argonaut hedge book and associated mark-to-market liability, while providing significantly increased exposure to rising gold prices.
Alamos's acquisition of Argonaut gold closes this week. I believe Alamos made a very good acquisition here to the benefit of shareholders. The stock is one of the best performing gold stocks and well above the C$21, 2012 highs.
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