Mid Day Market Report – Two Shooters at Trump. Bidenomics vs Trumpnomics

Although Biden has stepped aside from the presidential race, the economic policies will remain much the same with Harris or whoever succeeds so a comparison still viable. Before I get to that I want to point out new information on Trump's assassination attempt.

At Least Two Shooters at Trump

Right from the beginning I thought there was a lot of gunshots (8 to 10) that was very unprofessional. I first heard of this new evidence by Chris Martenson at Vigilant Fox. He is a PhD who does economic analysis and I have read some of his past analysis. I then verified his analysis at two other sources, including the televised video of Trump's speech.

As background, at a young age I did a lot of target shooting and was very good. This was using a peep site at 50 yards and a low powered rifle. I was also an avid hunter so I am just saying I know my way around guns and how they work and perform.

First there was 3 distinct shots, evenly spaced and the first one hit Trump's ear as he was very fortunate he turned his head some as the shot arrived. This was probably a professional shooter who is going to take 1 or 2 shots, 3 in this case and is going to hit his target and disengage. A professional assassin usually will not keep shooting to reveal his position.

Just after the first 3 shots, there was 6 shots in rapid fire with the 6^th shot sounding different. I heard there was a police officer that took a shot at Crooks (the gunman on the roof) so this was likely that police officer's shot. The 5 rapid shots had an echo which is probably consistent with shots around metal buildings. Five rapid shots like this is more consistent with an amateur shooter who often tends to take a lot of shots and not careful aim. Also he was probably fearful and nervous. Crooks was very young and inexperienced. He just graduated from high school in 2022.

None of these hit Trump but were likely the shots that hit others in the crowd that were not even close to Trump but in the general line of fire. The final and 10^th shot a few seconds later would be the secret service sniper shooting Crooks.

Judging by this information, this was a well thought out professional plan like you might expect by an inside plot by the CIA or an adversary like an organized terrorist, Iran or China.

Crooks was likely setup as the fall guy to provide a plausible narrative and avoid having the investigation going too deep. If this is true there could be another attempt and certainly enemies of Trump and Trump haters are very real and probably organized.

There will be a lot more data and facts over time. Like ballistics. Have no bullets been found to confirm the weapon? Bullets lodged in bleachers etc. could confirm direction, but maybe they intend not to do much investgation?

Now that Biden has stepped out of the presidential race it has thrown a curve ball at the Republican campaign and probably Trump adversaries are going to see if this diminishes his odds at winning the Presidency. Regardless of Biden now fading away the comparison of his economic policies and Trumps' is still viable because Democratic policies will not change much.

To be bipartisan I had AI do the comparison of the policies, then I will provide actual data on what the outcome was.

AI generated from - What are the positive and negative effects of the Biden administrations economic policies and what are the positive and negative effects of Donald Trumps economic policies?

Biden Administration Economic Policies

Positive Effects:

1. Stimulus Packages and Direct Aid:

- The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) provided direct payments to individuals, expanded unemployment benefits, and offered aid to businesses and local governments, helping to stabilize the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

2. Infrastructure Investment:

- The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act aims to rebuild and modernize transportation networks, utilities, and broadband infrastructure, potentially boosting long-term economic growth and job creation.

3. Climate Initiatives:

- Investments in clean energy and green technologies are designed to combat climate change and create new jobs in renewable energy sectors.

4. Child Tax Credit Expansion:

- Expanding the Child Tax Credit has helped reduce child poverty and provided financial relief to families.

Negative Effects:

1. Increased Government Spending and Debt:

- Significant increases in government spending have raised concerns about the national debt and potential long-term fiscal sustainability.

2. Inflation:

- Increased spending and supply chain disruptions have contributed to higher inflation rates, affecting the cost of living and eroding purchasing power.

3. Tax Increases:

- Proposed tax increases on corporations and high-income earners could potentially discourage investment and reduce economic growth.

4. Regulatory Changes:

- Increased regulation, particularly in the energy sector, may raise costs for businesses and consumers.

Trump Administration Economic Policies

Positive Effects:

1. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act:

- The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced corporate and individual tax rates, which proponents argue spurred economic growth, increased business investment, and boosted consumer spending.

2. Deregulation:

- Efforts to reduce regulatory burdens were intended to foster a more business-friendly environment, potentially stimulating economic activity and job creation.

3. Trade Policies:

- Renegotiation of trade agreements, such as the USMCA, aimed to create more favorable conditions for American workers and businesses.

4. Pre-Pandemic Economic Growth:

- Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. experienced strong economic growth, low unemployment rates, and rising wages.

Negative Effects:

1. Trade Wars:

- Imposing tariffs, particularly on China, led to retaliatory measures and disrupted global supply chains, increasing costs for American businesses and consumers.

2. Tax Cuts and Deficit:

- While the tax cuts stimulated growth, they also contributed to increasing the federal deficit and national debt.

3. Environmental Deregulation:

- Rolling back environmental protections raised concerns about long-term environmental damage and public health risks.

4. Economic Inequality:

- Critics argue that the benefits of tax cuts and economic policies were disproportionately felt by the wealthy and large corporations, potentially exacerbating income inequality.

Both administrations implemented policies with significant impacts on the economy, and the effects can be viewed differently depending on economic perspectives and priorities.

It is not fair to include the Covid-19 meltdown and strong recovery when comparing the results of Trump and Biden, so I thought to be most fair would be to look at the first three years of each term. This eliminates the meltdown of 2020 and some of the sharp recovery from it.

Stock Market, under Trump in the first 3 years (Jan 1 2017 to Jan 1 2020) the S&P went from 2,250 to 3,225 up 43% and under Biden (Jan 1 2021 to Jan 1 2024) from 3,700 to 4770 up 29% so the stock market did better with Trumpnomics.

GDP Growth, under Trump in $billion from 2016 at $18,805 to 2019 at $21,521 up 14.4%. With Biden from 2020 $23,323 to $27,356 an increase of 17.3%. Biden had the benefit of a strong rebound from a depressed 2020 GDP number so I am going to say on GDP growth about even.

Unemployment, under Trump the rate fell from 4.7% to 3.6% while under Biden the rate went from 6.3% to about 3.9%. Again Biden benefited from the 2020 Covid recovery but even still Trump ended with a slightly lower unemployment number so I call Trumpnomocs a small winner here.

Inflation, under Trump it was pretty stable from 2.1% to 2.3% but it soared under Biden from this level to over 7% and ended 2023 about 3.4%. Trumpnomics is a clear winner here.

Interest rates (Fed Fund rate) , under Trump from 0.75% to 1.75% and under Biden from 0.25% to 5.5% so Trumpnomics is a clear winner here.

Deficit to GDP ratio, under Trump it went from 3.4% to 4.6% and under Biden it soared to 11.8% in 2021 and currently 6.2%. Biden got penalized some with the Covid-19 pandemic but also consider Biden had a little better GDP, Biden clearly way over spent that was also a contributor to inflation, so Trumpnomics is a clear winner here.

Crime (murders/100,000), Under Trump there was a slight improvement from 5.6% to 5.2%. It soared to 6.8% in 2020 with Covid-19 policies but has been elevated under Biden at over 6% and 6.3% in 2022. Trumpnomics is a clear winner here.

Balance of Trade, under Trump the deficit was around -$45 to -$50 billion. It increased some in 2020 and hit a high of -$101 billion in March 2022 and remains high under Biden at -$65 to -$75 billion of late. Trumpnomics a clear winner here.

Health Care Spending, under Trump in constant 2022 dollars (eliminates recent high inflation) it had increased and under Biden the spending decreased. It looks like Trumpnomics is a winner here but I think there was too much distortion from Covid-19 so am not saying either is better.

Border Control, this one I looked at in a previous report and Trump is a huge winner here. The NY Times tried a counter argument to this by claiming the crime rate with immigrants is not any higher and in fact lower. They are correct but they are misleading because the problem is with illegal immigrants not the legal ones. In many cases they are illegal because they are criminals.

Consumer Spending, under Trump spending was around 2.6% and there was a big negative number in 2020 and the big rebound in 2021. Under Biden in 2022 it was up 2.5% and 2.6% in 2023 so there is no clear winner here.

Consumer Confidence, under Trump the index went from about 100 to almost 140 and was around 130 before Covid-19 hit. Under Biden it rebounded in 2021 to around 130 and has been down hill ever since around 110 and lower. This is mostly from high inflation and interest rates, so Trumpnomics a clear winner here.

Industrial Production, under Trump the index climbed from 99 to 104 ending around 102 before Covid-19 hit. It plunged to 86 and eventually recovered to 99 in 2021 under Biden. In 2023 it has been around 103 so there is no clear winner here other than Trumpnomics did see a decent increase.

Conclusion

When I started this comparison, I did not have any idea what the actual numbers would be, but I knew Trumpnomics would surely be a winner in a few like crime, inflation and interest rates. I was surprised how much better Trumpnomics did in so many categories. In fact Bidenomics was only able to hold about even in 4 areas while Trumpnomics was a big winner in 7 areas and Bidenomics in none.

I was surprised how much better Trumpnomics did and I bet most will be. I think the legacy media and social media is in so much control of the left (Democrats) you mostly hear how good Biden is and how bad Trump is that it masks the truth. Like I always say, 'numbers don't lie but politicians do'

Well you can read how AI compared the two and you can look at the results in 13 different areas and draw any conclusions you like.

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