Moderna MRNA breaks down, Talarus TALS takeover, Gold
Struthers Report V29 # 10.8
Moderna - - - - Nasdaq:MRNA - - - - - - Recent Price - $88
November $110 Put - - - - Buy at $14.50 - - - - Recent Price - $22.80
Moderna broke down this week on negative news with Covid EUA shots from Pfizer.
Pfizer Updates Full-Year 2023 Guidance
Revises 2023 Revenue Guidance Range to $58.0 to $61.0 Billion Solely due to COVID Products
Reduces Guidance for Paxlovid Revenues by Approximately $7.0 Billion, which includes a $4.2 Billion Non-Cash Revenue Reversal for the Return of Approximately 7.9 Million Treatment Courses of EUA-Labeled U.S. Government Inventory.
Reduces Guidance for Comirnaty Revenues by Approximately $2.0 Billion.
Records $5.5 Billion Non-Cash Charge in 2023 Third Quarter Primarily for COVID Inventory Write-Offs due to Lower-Than-Expected Demand.
Previously Pfizer Q2 2023 revenues were $12.7 billion which was a -54% decline from 2022. Their Covid products Comirnaty and Paxlovid accounted for just $1.6 billion.
For Moderna, they are totally reliable on the Covid emergency use shots. Moderna's revenue in the last quarter was only $0.3 billion and it is only a matter of when they will have to take huge write offs on their Covid EAU shots. I believe the market does not have a clue on how dramatically the uptake in these shots has declined. The market has believed most of the media and big Pharma hype on Covid, while the public has been much wiser.
I pointed out in my September 18th issue numerous things causing vaccine hesitancy. And in fact the CDC's own data shows a huge decline in uptake, most people are not getting fooled any longer. According to CDC data, the uptake of last falls Omicron bivalent shot was only about 17% of Americans. Most of it was the elderly, over 65. For example NY state that many would consider more pro Covid vaccine showed only a 17.7% uptake.
On the chart, MRNA stock broke down below $95 on strong volume. My next target is around $70 and if we hit that before their November 2nd Q3 report I may suggest taking profits with the Puts. However, I think the market may have to hear a very negative Q3 report to wake up. The Puts expire November 17th so we have some time after the Q3 report release.
Talarus - - - - - Nasdaq:TALS - - - - - - Recent Price - $2.73
Entry Price - $2.20 - - - - - - - - - Opinion – hold for $1.51 dividend
It is no surprise that Talarus is doing a 10 for 1 roll back as part of the merger. It was approved as part of the proxy. Nothing changes, as now you will get a $15.10 dividend on your 10 for 1 stock. The merger was approved at yesterday's stockholder meeting. As previously announced, the ex-dividend date in respect of such special cash dividend will be before market open on October 20, 2023. I will see where the stock is Friday and my suggest selling on Friday.
GOLD
Central Banks bought 77 tons of gold in August, about 38% more than July. Their buying spree has gone on over a decade because they see gold much higher prices in US$.
I have not seen any September numbers yet, but data from the People's Bank of China shows they bought gold again in September, Gold reserves rose by 26t, lifting their reported 2023 buying to 181t. China also bought 29 tonnes of gold in August. Since it started its buying spree last November, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves by 243 tonnes, and the precious metal now represents over 4% of its total foreign reserves.
Gold is up almost $30 today and is getting close to my key $1980 break out level. Today's price action can be considered a test of this level so some pull back or consolidation would not surprise me.
I mentioned in my last update that Managed Money would probably end up more short than the 7,561 contracts previous, and indeed they ended up at -26,767. I expect the next weekly COT report will show they started to cover. Managed Money always gets it wrong on a collective basis.
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