Moderna, Sell Nov $110 Puts, BCE
Struthers Report V29 #12.1
The S&P 500 is having a good rally from recent lows as expected. The first resistance was around 4250 which it currently has breached, next will be at 4400.
Moderna - - - - - -Nasdaq:MRNA - - - - - -Recent Price - $69.65
Nov $110 Put - - - Buy Price - - - $14.50 - - - - Current Price - $41 - - - Sell
Moderna reported Q3 revenue of $1.8 billion and a loss of $3.6 billion.
From their press release “ COVID-19: The Company reported $1.8 billion in Spikevax® (COVID-19 vaccine) sales in the third quarter of 2023, which includes $0.9 billion of U.S. sales and $0.8 billion of international sales. This leads to $3.9 billion in vaccine sales for the year through the third quarter. The Company believes that the U.S. market for fall 2023 will be at least 50 million doses, supporting total 2023 Spikevax sales of at least $6 billion. The U.S. fall 2023 vaccinations administered in retail pharmacies to date are tracking similarly to the 2022 fall season, despite a later launch. Spikevax is available in all leading pharmacies and points of care and continues to gain market share.”
I don't believe their optimistic outlook. According to Pfizer and the CDC, Covid shot sales are not doing near as well as 2022. They only wrote off $1.3 billion of inventories and I believe there will be more to come. They still show $873 million in inventories, can they sell all of this? R&D expense is also rising, up 41% to $1.2 billion. They have $12.8 billion in cash so will have to raise money in 2024. I doubt the market will give them equity at today's valuation of $30 billion.
The stock opened well below my $70 target this morning, hopefully you sold the Puts then, but regardless we have over a 175% gain so great profits to take.
BCE - - - - TSX:BCE - - - - - - Recent Price - $53.07
Entry Price - $52.60 - - - - - Opinion – buy
No surprise with BCE Q3 numbers this morning, pretty steady in general with a slight downward bias. I am using the average of yesterday's price ($52.14) when I sent my newsletter out to the paid group and the current price of $53.07 to give our entry price of $52.60. This price is still gives over a 7.3% dividend yield.
All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which may change at any time and without notice. The author/publisher of this publication has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. The information & data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but because the information & data source are beyond the author's control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Because of the ever-changing nature of information & statistics the author/publisher strongly encourages the reader to communicate directly with the company and/or with their personal investment adviser to obtain up to date information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter is not a qualified financial adviser & is not acting as such in this publication..