Tariffs and Election, Sell Gold ETFs, Buy the Stocks
Short Bitcoin SBIT
Tariffs and Canadian Election
The media mainly calls Trump's tariffs madness, but the only thing certain is the uncertainty. As I have commented before about crazy things, maybe there is method to the madness?
One theory floating around. Trump, only punished the world (the group) to not selectively call out China for bad behaviour, fentanyl, unfair trade practices, currency manipulation, pick your poison.
Maybe Trump took a gamble that China would put up a fight. China immediately retaliated and added that it would not relent. On Tuesday, the Chinese government even said that it would "fight to the finish." Trump lifted the bigger tariffs from the rest of the word and put only the 10% back, with one exception – China.
It certainly looks like this will escalate. The U.S. has another powerful tool that Trump might use to force China to negotiate. The U.S. has powerful capital markets and about 300 Chinese companies are listed on U.S exchanges.
Kevin O'Leary, whether you like the guy or not, he knows a thing or two. Since China joined WTO in 2000, he says they have never obeyed the rules. None of the China companies listed in the U.S. are GAP compliant. He thinks they are all going to get de-listed.
I don't know if this will happen, but even if Trump threatens to do so, it could rattle Chinese stocks. I am looking at some angles to play this, like puts on the China MHCI ETF, so stay tuned for what I find.
On the topic of China and tariffs, as I pointed out on the weekend, Canada is the only other country that retaliated on U.S. tariffs. Con Man Carney and liberals are using Trump tariffs as an election platform, hoping voters will forget how their past policies have destroyed Canada.
On Friday the media started to put pressure on Mark Carney, for his close ties to China, China election interference and his shady dealings running Brookfield Asset Management. The pressure was bad enough that Carney refused to answer media questions and halted his campaign so liberal strategists could regroup. We will see their new propaganda later this week.
Like I said before, Mark Carney is Trudeau 2.0. He is more advanced, more destructive, more scandalous, more pro Chinese and more pro socialist.
Like Trudeau he is probably just another Chinese patriot. Take note and kind of scary, the same day Carney called an election, his successor at Brookfield was in China meeting with leader Xi Jinping.
Desiree Fixler, whistle blower was in Forbes Jan 2023. She worked 25 years at the top of banking circles, the WEF and with Mark Carney and his circle. She did a recent interview in the Northern Perspective. It is an hour long and a real inside look at ESG, DEI and Mark Carney, here are a few quotes near the end -“ U.S. Tariffs are not Canada's crisis but electing Mark Carney will be, Carney is not telling the truth about several issues.”
“He is just a natural resource thief”.
“Carney's brand is crisis”
Hopefully the media is going to stop sugar coating the guy and let Canadians know who he really is, especially after his comment, I think on Friday “Don't believe everything in the Globe and Mail.” One good thing about Trudeau, he is a polished speaker and could BS his way around anything. Lets see how Carney does in the French debate Wednesday and English one Thursday, unless Carney backs out again.
Gold vs Gold Stocks.
I am going to sell the precious metals ETF 'CEF” and put that into gold stocks. By no means sell any physical gold and silver, but if you have ETFs, I believe you will do way better in the gold stocks.
Gold above ground is more expensive compared to gold in the ground, anytime in history. Also gold stocks are the cheapest in history.
Gold stocks will benefit from a double whammy. Energy is the biggest expense to miners and the oil price in gold is the cheapest in history. And they are going to report off the chart cash flow and earnings this quarter and more so next quarter.
For producers, I would buy now B2Gold (BTO) and Equinox Gold (EQX), there is also my two recent advanced juniors, Amex Exploration (AMX) and Rio2 Ltd (RIO).
A lot of investors who would have bought gold stocks bought bitcoin and the ETFs instead of gold stocks. Bitcoin is in a bear market going down as much as -31% form the highs thus far. Eventually they will start moving some $$ to gold stocks as they keep seeing them go up while crypto declines.
And on that point, I put an alert out on signal earlier this morning.
Short Bitcoin with SBIT
It is time to short Bitcoin again. It had a strong rally over the weekend, going from around $79K on Friday to $85.7 currently.
I am buying the 2 times short ETF SBIT around $11.40.
As of this writing, Bitcoin has dropped around $1,000 since then. Try and buy the SBIT around $11.60 on a Bitcoin jump higher.
I started suggesting Bitcoin ETF trades on April 16, 2024, starting with US$10,000. Things started off a bit slow as I am sure there was a learning curve. I started mostly on the long side and then was going long and short in May to October. I missed the big move up by selling too soon, but still made about a 15% gain on that trade in November.
With the Trump rally in January, I predicted a double top and that Bitcoin would go into a bear market with equities. And so it did, dropping as much as -31% so far from the peak and I have been trading in and out on the short side with the SBIT ETF.
As of the last closed trade on April 7, 2025, the compounded returns on the trades since last year is now +94.5%. That is about a year time frame. In that same time frame, Bitcoin is up about +19%.
I am considering this a success and plan to continue the trades. I must point out that past success does not guarantee so in the future.
Trade History (Paid Subscribers)
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