Trump Scores 1, Consumers? Oil&Gas in the Lead, GSPR, BFG, BRC
Trump Scores 1
It looks like finally Israel and Hamas are coming to agreement on a ceasefire and hostage release. Trump warned hostages better be released by the time he takes office or 'all hell will break out'. Of course Biden is taking credit but the Israel press says otherwise.
According to The Times of Israel:
A "tense" weekend meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and incoming Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff led to a breakthrough in the hostage negotiations, with the top aide to US President-elect Donald Trump doing more to sway the premier in a single sit-down than outgoing President Joe Biden did all year, two Arab officials told The Times of Israel on Tuesday.
For the last few years, Biden has looked weak to the international community and more so in the past year. Nobody would take him too serious. While Trump comes across as a leader who might do anything within or outside the norm.
Consumers Pulling Back
Jobless claims rose some this week to 217,000, above 210,000 expectations. Retail Sales at 0.4% for the holiday season were also weaker than expectations of 0.6%. Building material, garden equipment and supplies dealers saw a 2% drop in December, with the sales decline worsening from November’s 0.8% dip. Food services and drinking places also saw a contraction of 0.3% in monthly sales following a marginal 0.1% increase in November.
These numbers go along with my thesis that the economy is not as strong as many perceived. I have also been warning that consumers hopes of lower interest rates would be dashed and that recent realization will cause more retrenchment. Remember retail sales are not adjusted for inflation. Government numbers tell us around 3% to 3.5% inflation which means real numbers that consumers experience with retail sales are like 6%, 7% maybe more, so retail sales are actually contracting.
Inflation numbers don't include shrink inflation and I bring this up because I have a prime example today. I bought my cereal Bran Flakes and the box was 405 grams and the last time I bought it the box was 560 grams. That is 28% less, so the price does not go up but you get way less.
Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey comes in very Strong
The diffusion index for current general activity jumped from a revised reading of -10.9 in December to 44.3 in January, its highest reading since April 2021. This is the index’s largest monthly increase since June 2020. Nearly 51 percent of the firms reported increases (up from 19 percent last month), far exceeding the 7 percent reporting decreases (down from 30 percent).
One month does not make a trend but good never the less. The not so good news that comes with it is rising prices. On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in prices, with both price indexes rising to recent highs. The prices paid index rose 5 points to 31.9 in January, its highest reading since December 2022.
Home builder confidence for newly built single-family homes was 47 in January, up one point from December, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Builder sentiment edged higher to begin the year on hopes for an improved economic growth and regulatory environment. At the same time, builders expressed concerns over how building material tariffs and higher costs might affect them.
Oil&Gas Leading the Market
Buying more oil&gas stocks in 2024 and buying the ones already on our list when they were down is starting to pay off. The S&P Energy Index is up 7.6% in 2025 while Permian and APA Corp. on our list are leading the way up about +10% in 2025.
I usually show the most active Comex oil contract which now is March WTI and it has just tested one year highs around $79. This chart here is the 2 year spot price and I am showing that to show that it has also broke out to the upside from a wedge pattern.
It is looking like my theory of government intervention to keep prices down ahead of the election was probably correct. We can certainly see the Biden Administration now intervening to push prices up to try and hurt Trump. The Biden Administration has been shutting down drilling rights everywhere and recently on most U.S. coastal waters. Then after being lax on tariffs, a week before Trump is to take over and Russia has pretty well beat Ukraine, Biden does a big crack down on Russia oil with 270 tankers sanctioned as of January 10th (see chart). This really tightened up the oil market.
And who knows what intervention has been going on in the Comex futures market?
I am not expecting real high oil prices with weak world economies but I believe we won't see prices so weak and the market sentiment won't get as bearish as it did in 2024. The oil&gas equities were and still are over sold and under valued. Market sentiment and valuations on the equities should improve in 2025 as well.
GSP Resources - - - TSXV:GSPR - - - - Recent Price $0.14
GSPR released the remaining drill results on 6 holes for their Alwin property and made a new high grade gold discovery. Drill hole AM-24-06 intersected a zone of high-grade gold mineralization, which included a single 0.84 m sample that assayed 35.1 g/t Au (1.02 oz/ton)
AM-24-06 results included 5.04 g/t gold (Au) and 1.01% copper (Cu) over 7.90 m , including 22.93 g/t Au and 1.82% Cu over 1.64 m ; in addition to an upper zone grading 1.22% Cu, 22.5 g/t Ag and 0.64 g/t Au over 2.5 m. The hole was collared south of the Alwin Mine upper decline entrance and was designed to test for the extension of mineralization to the northwest.
Drill hole AM-24-05 targeting the eastern untested near surface projection of the high-grade “4 Zone” that was historically exploited on multiple underground sublevels, intersected a high-grade copper zone yielding 3.93% Cu, 6 g/t Ag, and 0.10 g/t Au over 4.78 m.
Simon Dyakowski, CEO said in the news release , “The results reported today have yielded the highest-grade modern gold assay interval at Alwin drilled to-date.”
This certainly changes the scope of the project to the upside and this gold discovery (with copper) will have to be followed up to learn the extent/size of this zone.
It looks like the stock is trying to break the 13 cent resistance level.
Giant Mining - - - - CSE:BFG - - - - - - Recent Price - $0.40
The stock has started to move this year going from $0.20 to $0.40. The company is seeking bids for it's next drill contract.
I have not updated Blackrock in a while, they had excellent high grade drill news today
Blackrock Silver - - - TSXV: BRC, OTC: BKRRF - - -Recent Price - $0.43
Entry Price $0.14 - - - - - - - Opinion - buy
Blackrock has been drilling to upgrade resources to the measured and indicated category. The M&I Conversion Program has completed 32 of the planned 40 drill holes. Today Blackrock Silver reported the third tranche of assays from the M&I Conversion Program on the Company's 100% owned Tonopah West project, Walker Lane trend, Nevada.
HIGHLIGHTS:
TXC24-119 returned 4.69 metres of 714 grams per tonne ("g/t") silver equivalent ("AgEq") (379.0 g/t silver ("Ag") and 3.72 g/t gold ("Au")) from a depth of 370.4 metres, including 1.22 metres of 1,469 g/t AgEq (770.5 g/t Ag and 7.76 g/t Au).
TXC24-117 yielded 2.01 metres of 1,783 g/t AgEq (1,141 g/t Ag and 7.13 g/t Au) from a depth of 261.2 metres, including 0.40 metres of 6,064.4 g/t AgEq (3,712 g/t Ag and 26.13 g/t Au).
TXC24-102 intersected 0.98 metres of 1,048 g/t AgEq (628.0 g/t Ag and 4.67 g/t Au) from a depth of 152.9 metres, including 0.61 metres of 1,321 g/t AgEq (756.0 g/t Ag and 6.28 g/t Au).
M&I Conversion Program: Assays for 5 completed drillholes are pending at this time, with a further 8 drillholes to be completed to finish off the program. An additional 6 reverse circulation ("RC") drillholes have also been added to follow-up on high-grade mineralization encountered 200 metres to the east of the M&I Conversion Area.
Resource Expansion Program: 9 drillholes testing broad continuity of high-grade gold & silver mineralization across a 1 kilometre vein corridor aiming to link the DPB resource area with the NW Stepout resource area have been completed with all assays pending at this time.
The stock came down from around $1.30 in the junior bear market but has been recovering this year. I believe it will go a lot higher and is a buy here is you don't have a position.
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